Draft Thoughts: Weekend Before The Draft Edition

 

    By this time next week, we'll know who Washington took at #11 barring a trade back. So here's a look at the most likely six candidates that fit the bill. 

   It's pretty much the same list I've been floating around in my head for about a week now, but I figured I would use Matt's Tweet since he put it out there before I did. I really don't think Wilson and Gardner will still be on the board at #11. Hamilton is a 50/50 depending on what Houston and the Jets do prior to Washington's pick. I don't see Hamilton getting past #13 if he falls however. Stingley seems to be the BPA choice if everybody is off the board. I say this because I just don't see Washington going OL, DL or QB here.

   Obviously, a trade back would probably be the best option. Washington is missing their 3rd, 5th and most likely their 2023 2nd round pick. To move back and regain some of those picks would be an ideal situation. If that doesn't happen though I see either Hamilton, London or Olave as the most likely options to be selected by the front office.

   Personally, I would go with Hamilton if he's there. The reasons are simple. Hamilton is considered a top 5 prospect with some saying he's the best player in the draft. The team needs a replacement at the Buffalo Nickle position after the release of Landon Collins when they run their 4-2-5, which seems to have become Washington's base formation. Hamilton could also rotate as a SS or FS when needed as well. While McCain and Curl have seemed to have jelled at the end of the 2021 season, Washington could continue to bolster the secondary with the addition of Hamilton.

   I wouldn't be upset in the least if London or Olave were to be taken at #11. I have some concerns about both however and with the WR class being so deep, I wonder if the team could trade back and still get talent of a similar/slightly lesser caliber later in the 1st round or in the 2nd round. You could also argue the same with Hamilton as Penn St.'s Jaquan Brisker or Baylor's Jalen Pitre could also fit a Viper or Buffalo Nickle role as well in the Jack Del Rio scheme.

It's a toss up for fans though. I ran a poll on Twitter of who they wanted at #11 if there was no trade back and the results weren't that surprising:

I do expect Washington to try and trade back. Maybe they'll do a trade with Pittsburgh if Willis is still on the board or a trade with the Chargers for a defensive player. Hard to tell. We know Ron really likes the OSU WRs in Wilson and Olave and I can see why. They, much like Terry McLaurin, have great separation skills and route running. Why it probably wouldn't be my pick at #11, I wouldn't be in the least surprised if Ron pulls the trigger for Chris Olave.

The Position Few Are Discussing That Should be Addressed in the Draft

   One of the main reasons wide receiver is a big topic in the Burgundy and Gold's fanbase is because fans want to see Carson Wentz given as much opportunity to succeed (or fail) in 2022. The explanation is simple, the team needs to know if they made the right choice in Wentz and should keep him under contract through the 2024 season. If the answer is no, then 2023 does offer a potentially good QB class to try to choose a replacement.

   Wide receiver is important as there really isn't a currently established compliment to Terry McLaurin on the roster and who knows if Curtis Samuel will be healthy and can contribute. That said, there are some concerns at the tight end position. Logan Thomas is coming off a late season ACL injury. Will he be able to be ready by the start of the season? If so, will he be back at the form that made him a success here in DC? John Bates had an impressive rookie season, but is more of a traditional blocking TE who can go out for passes. Sammis Reyes is still an unknown factor. We saw him a little last season, but he was mostly on special teams with only playing in 5% of the offensive snaps.

   Carson Wentz has had a good deal of success with pass catching TEs with the Eagles and Colts. It might not be a bad idea to consider drafting one in either day 2 or day 3 of the draft. The good news, according to Burgundy Burner is that the team has met with quite a few TEs during the draft process. Here's a link to every player the team met with prior to the draft and when they met with them. 

My Seven Round Mock Simulation

Finally, I'll end with a simulation that I did on Pro Football Network's mock draft simulator. Is it realistic? I doubt it as I don't see Drake London getting out of the top 20 but here it goes:

Notes: 

- Got Arizona's 2nd round 2023 pick along with #23 and #55 in the trade for #11.

- Lost 2023 7th and #240 in trade with the Chargers for #254 and #255.

- Here's a link to the thread I did on this mock on Twitter. It goes into more detail on why I made the trades, what I was looking for and how I addressed needs. 

If I have time this weekend, I might try and do a few Meaningless Mock Drafts with my 1st round attempt and another 7 round Washington Mock.

Love it? Hate it? Let me know your thoughts below or drop me a line on Twitter @HmBrewer72.

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The Carson Wentz Trade (Pt. 1 Initial Reactions)

WTF???!!!!

"F***ing stupid. They were going to cut him."

   This was one of my first comments to my wife when she texted me that Wentz had been traded to Washington. My problem was never with Wentz as a player. Matter of fact, I had mentioned once or twice that he was a viable (and probably better) option if/when the Colts released him than most of the available free agents at the time and/or trading for the often injured Jimmy Garoppolo. I do have some concerns about Wentz (injury history, why is he now on his 3rd team if he is a true franchise QB?) but my primary issues were more about compensation than anything else. 

   Overall, the trade in picks isn't that big of a deal to me. Washington on a whole has struggled on day two picks. For every Terry McLaurin and possibly Sam Cosmi, they've drafted a Geron Christian or Su's Cravens (go back and look at Washington's 2nd round picks over the last 10 years it ranges from horrible to average players). So 2 thirds (with the 2023 pick likely to become a 2nd round selection*) for a legitimate starting quarterback is well worth the risk. I don't (and still don't) like the cap hit that the team imposed upon itself by taking Wentz's full contract without trying to get the Colts to pay for some of Wentz's 2022 contract year. The remainder of the contract has no guaranteed monies, so if the team thinks it's not working, they can release him with no further cap hits. If Wentz does prove to be an improvement from previous years, or for that matter a success, then the team has him under contract for two seasons at a reasonable cost for a franchise QB. I know many fans think the cap is just a game of Monopoly money but you do have to keep under the cap and the ramifications for Wentz many be more apparent as the years go by. I'll discuss this more in part 2 of the Carson Wentz trade. This still brings up questions about why the team pulled the trigger instead of possibly waiting it out and/or getting an even better deal if that was likely.

   One suggestion is that the team wanted to make certain that they could get Wentz in DC. Call it being aggressive or call it desperation but the Burgundy & Gold needs to start winning now. Ron Rivera saw the situation and knew that the bar of talent was starting to significantly drop after the Seahawks traded Russell Wilson to Denver. There was no way he could enter the 2022 season with a Trubisky or Mariota and to draft a 2022 QB and hope for the best. The 2022 draft class is pretty weak when it comes to quarterbacks. Even the best of the bunch, Malik Willis, is likely to require a year to sit and develop before he is ready to make his NFL debut. Rivera is 14-19 into his two year tenure and knows that year three he needs to show that his plan is working. There was no guarantee that had Wentz been cut, he would've signed with Washington. Thus, Rivera made the move even though it may have not been the most ideal trade for Washington.

   Another reason is that there have been rumors swirling that their were other suitors for Wentz's services. The emphasis needs to be on the word rumors. There have been no official reports that another team made the Colts an offer to trade for Wentz. This is unlike with the Russell Wilson trade, where we did learn that Washington had made an offer to trade for the Seahawks QB (in fact Washington supposedly offered more for Wilson than Denver). The Colts probably did have some calls from other teams inquiring about Wentz as the team had made it clear he was available for trade or that they would eventually cut him in the near future if he was not traded. So did Washington more or less bid against themselves to acquire Wentz? That would be such a Dan Snyder thing to do.

   This is only part 1 of my take on the Carson Wentz trade. This post was my initial reaction to the trade (generally negative) and my reasoning on why (cap hit, some player concerns). Now that the trade is official and there's no backing out, the rest of this series will take a look at the following: draft and cap values, Scott Turner's scheme, Carson Wentz the player/the person and my final thoughts.

Draft and Cap Values: Part 2 will look at the trade value of Carson Wentz in 2022 versus just a year ago when the Colts traded for Wentz from the Eagles. I'll even go back further to and analyze the trades made by the Eagles to obtain Wentz in the 2017 draft. I'll then go an explore Wentz's cap numbers for 2022-2024. We'll see how Wentz's numbers compare to other quarterbacks in the league and if he's overpriced or of significant value to Washington.

Scott Turner's Scheme: Part 3 will look at Scott Turner, offensive coordinator. What is his scheme? What does Scott really want to do with the Washington offense. Has that scheme been badly hindered by the quarterbacks he's had on the roster? What can Carson Wentz provide to Scott to make his scheme work and be successful?

Carson Wentz, the player/person: What makes up Carson Wentz? Who is he and what has made him both succeed and struggle in the NFL? In part 4, I'll look at what I've heard from various media outlets and interviews and figure out what ended Wentz in both Philly and Indy. Can Wentz rebound? Is Washington the right fit for him despite all the drama that comes out in DC?

Final Thoughts: Part 5 will be my final breakdown on the trade. Do I now like it? Am I okay with it? Is this a typical screw up that you expect based off of history with the Washington front offices over the years? Does it at least make sense? Can Wentz actually help this team win? All will be answered here.

   If you have made it this far, thank you for reading this post. I hope to have part 2 out much sooner than part 1. I just had a hard time writing this introduction. There will be other stuff coming out as well in between the Wentz articles as we have gotten closer to the draft and I am way behind my draft film work.